Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that divided the country and triggered chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the political, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in academia but scarcely any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. Both composes two essays that aim for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, duties, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the notion that there might be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually not succeed but each side has possesses important lessons to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
