A mere 60 days ago when Morgan Rogers found himself on the pitch at Sunderland, appearing bewildered while the Villa manager berated him for not reading a penetrating pass. Back then, as Villa failed to win in six, doubts remained if Rogers' form were a sign or the source for the team's wider issues.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
On Sunday, in contrast, the sideline response proved to be decidedly more positive. As the England international curled home his brace-sealing goal to restore Villa's lead, Emery ripped off his coat, opened his arms and roared. The team were on their way to a tenth straight victory and having failed to win their initial half-dozen matches, now sit a mere three points behind table-toppers Arsenal.
Are They Genuine Challengers?
This is a particularly tough query to answer. History, the traditional standing of the club, indicates otherwise. Furthermore, they have not been entirely convincing in many games, despite the fact the wins have piled up.
Per statistical analysis, on just two occasions have Villa had an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than their opponents. For a side who have strung together a ten-match winning streak, Villa look weirdly vulnerable – but currently the fine lines are going in their favour.
The Reliant Strategy
The prevailing tactic looks like to exchange chances with rivals and then rely on Rogers to save the day with some clinical strikes. It happened away to Leeds, it occurred at West Ham, and it happened versus United.
Rogers' first goal came from a brilliant finish, bent precisely inside the goal frame from a wide position. His brace-completing goal acted as a slightly less clean iteration of the opener as he seized on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Can It Last?
Reason suggests otherwise. Against United, the opponents managed a greater number of attempts and more direct attempts. The team has secured their last eight victories by just one goal. They’ve conceded in all except one of those games.
Regression to the mean may well be the greatest opponent Villa will encounter over the coming weeks. Rogers, in all likelihood, cannot maintain drilling the ball into the net's top corner indefinitely.
A Case for Belief
Perhaps there is another reality whereby, rather than luck running out, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Vital cogs may yet rediscover their best form.
- The main striker could start scoring again.
- Jadon Sancho might become the player he showed in Germany.
- The defensive duo are due to return from injury, bolstering a sometimes shaky backline.
Perhaps there is in that the seeds of a title challenge, however, it is improbable can persist in leaning entirely on Morgan Rogers.
Enjoying the Ride
Yet, this is a surprise. It seemed improbable Villa would be in a Champions League place in December. And without a doubt back in October, few could imagine the young forward now would be at the forefront of a hunt for the title while establishing himself as an essential player for the national team.
The current run is to be savoured precisely because it seems so surreal. As the match-winner stood in front of the Villa faithful when the game ended orchestrating the applause, he seemed to be thoroughly enjoying it. A feeling he has rightly earned. Such periods do not happen often and must be appreciated.
